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2019 is likely to be volatile, but it is unlikely that the U.S. falls into recession. The one thing that could change that is if the partial U.S. government shutdown lasts long enough.

The shutdown is becoming more expensive than the very reason for the shutdown. The U.S. President signed legislation this week promising back pay for Federal workers when the shutdown ends. The problem is that the American taxpayer will then be paying for services which never took place at a rate of $200 million per day, or around $5 billion so far, which equates to the price of the border wall. Economists estimate the partial government shutdown is costing 0.1% of GDP growth to the U.S. every two weeks. We are...

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